It's that time again... Oscar predictions

I'll be honest: I haven't seen many of the nominated movies this year. In fact, I haven't seen most of them. That said, I know plenty about each nominated movie or actor, and have tracked each film's box office and critical success. I might be winging it in some places, but that's half the fun anyway. So, here we go:

BEST PICTURE
Babel
The Departed
Letters From Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen

MY PREFERENCE: Little Miss Sunshine
PREDICTED WINNER: Little Miss Sunshine
WHY: It's a controversial choice for Best Picture because it stands alone in comparison to the other more heavy and political movies in the category; I think that will work in its favor. Little Miss Sunshine is both hilarious and dramatic, with enough substance to make it deserving of this prize. Sure, Babel took home the Golden Globe and The Departed is a first-rate crime drama, but do either of those star the little girl who keeps asking for cups of water in Signs? Exaaactly.

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BEST ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond
Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson
Peter O'Toole, Venus
Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness
Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland

MY PREFERENCE: Leonardo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond
PREDICTED WINNER: Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland
WHY: Like last year's winner in this category (Philip Seymour Hoffman) did in Capote, Forest Whitaker plays a well-known public figure and completely inhabits the role in The Last King of Scotland. Watch a preview for this movie and you're already kind of terrified of him. I'd like to see DiCaprio take home the award because he's been excellent in every movie he's made for the past 4 years -- and he picks projects well. But the acclaim Whitaker is receiving is monstrous, so he's pretty much a sure thing to win.

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BEST ACTRESS

Penélope Cruz, Volver
Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal
Helen Mirren, The Queen
Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet, Little Children

MY PREFERENCE: Helen Mirren, The Queen
PREDICTED WINNER: Helen Mirren, The Queen
WHY: Mirren will take home this award because she played a living royal, and she did it well. Lots of women have played queens and other heads of state, but this movie is current with its focus on the days following Princess Diana's death. It's a subject many worldwide feel passionately about and a performance people are calling eerie in its precision.

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children
Djimon Hounsou, Blood Diamond
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
Mark Wahlberg, The Departed

MY PREFERENCE: Mark Wahlberg, The Departed
PREDICTED WINNER: Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
WHY: I'd like to see Wahlberg win because the guy's a great actor whose career has yet to take off the way it deserves to. An Oscar would make sure he never has to make another Invincible. This category, however, is all about Eddie Murphy. It's a comeback story and you know how Hollywood loves those.

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Adriana Barraza, Babel
Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal
Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Rinko Kikuchi, Babel

MY PREFERENCE: Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
PREDICTED WINNER: Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
WHY: I'm taking into account the Dreamgirls backlash when I predict 10-year-old Breslin will beat frontrunner Jennifer Hudson. We've already seen the Academy snub Dreamgirls in the Best Picture category, and I think that trend will continue when someone other than Jennifer Hudson takes home the Best Supporting Actress statue. The Babel women cancel each other out if you ask me, and Cate Blanchett is not the star performance in Notes on a Scandal. Call me crazy, but I think Abigail Breslin's taking this one home.

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BEST DIRECTOR

Clint Eastwood, Letters From Iwo Jima
Stephen Frears, The Queen
Alejandro González Iñárritu, Babel
Paul Greengrass, United 93
Martin Scorsese, The Departed

MY PREFERENCE: Paul Greengrass, United 93
PREDICTED WINNER: Martin Scorcese, The Departed
WHY: If this isn't Martin Scorcese's year -- which, by most accounts, it is -- it will be Paul Greengrass's. United 93 has garnered so much goodwill from the American public for its straightforward and gutwrenching portrayal of the events of 9/11. He deserves the award for telling a story many people thought they didn't want to hear again, and doing it with painstaking accuracy and utmost respect for the victims. I believe Martin Scorsese will win the award though -- not because The Departed was the best directed film of the year, but because people want to see the guy win.

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BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Babel
Letters From Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
Pan's Labyrinth
The Queen

MY PREFERENCE: Pan's Labyrinth
PREDICTED WINNER: Babel
WHY: Pan's Labyrinth is definitely the most imaginative of the nominated movies, but Babel has to take home something. Doesn't it? To its benefit, Babel is another of those movies with separate characters living separate lives that end up bumping up against eachother (like Crash). Oscar voters love that.

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BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan
Children of Men
The Departed
Little Children
Notes on a Scandal

MY PREFERENCE: Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan
PREDICTED WINNER: Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan
WHY: This category is the biggest mystery to me. Borat should win something at the Oscars for being what many believe to be the most funny movie ever made, but I'm not so sure it should be the original screenplay award. After all, the movie's best moments had to have been unscripted (i.e. the naked hotel room fight and the high society dinner party). But I'm taking a leap of faith here and guessing that Borat will win because voters will want to see Sacha Baron Cohen take the Oscar stage.

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