Oscar predictions

BEST PICTURE
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck
Munich

MY PREFERENCE: Crash
PREDICTED WINNER: Crash
WHY: I think a lot of people are expecting Brokeback to continue to dominate, but I think Oscar-voters are as tired of hearing about it as we are. Of the other choices in the category, only Crash has been building in popularity and acclaim these past few weeks. Also, remember that last year Million Dollar Baby beat out The Aviator, a film people thought was sure to win the big prize.

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BEST ACTOR
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
Terrence Howard, Hustle & Flow
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line
David Strathairn, Good Night, and Good Luck

MY PREFERENCE: Terrence Howard, Hustle & Flow
PREDICTED WINNER: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
WHY: Hoffman is the frontrunner and rightfully so, but I still think it would be nice to see Terrence Howard get the award for playing a pimp-turned-rapper. If anyone's going to win an award for playing such a role, it should probably be Howard for Hustle & Flow.

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BEST ACTRESS
Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents
Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
Keira Knightley, Pride & Prejudice
Charlize Theron, North Country
Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line

MY PREFERENCE: Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
PREDICTED WINNER: Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
WHY: Dench, Knightley and Theron are already winners for receiving nominations. The race -- and it doesn't seem like it's even a close one -- is between Huffman and Witherspoon. I'd like to see Witherspoon go home with the award, and if her lucky streak continues, she will.

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
George Clooney, Syriana
Matt Dillon, Crash
Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man
Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain
William Hurt, A History of Violence

MY PREFERENCE: Matt Dillon, Crash
PREDICTED WINNER: George Clooney, Syriana
WHY: Giamatti was overlooked last year for Sideways, but he won't win for Cinderella Man because the movie never really connected with a large audience. Gyllenhaal's movie has received tons of support and award season buzz but rarely is he singled out as particularly noteworthy. William Hurt's role in A History of Violence is too small to overshadow other nominees like Clooney and Dillon. These two men (Clooney and Dillon) are the frontrunners and it will be interesting to see which way the Academy sways. My guess is that they will honor Clooney here just so he doesn't go home empty handed (because he will lose the Best Director and Best Original Screenplay awards). Dillon, who was excellent in Crash, deserves to win.

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, Junebug
Catherine Keener, Capote
Frances McDormand, North Country
Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener
Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain

MY PREFERENCE: Catherine Keener, Capote
PREDICTED WINNER: Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener
WHY: This category is pretty up in the air. Michelle Williams and Amy Adams actually tied at the Golden Globes, but Rachel Weisz won at the SAG and BAFTA awards. I prefer Keener's deceivingly simple and understated performance in Capote, but I think that Weisz will take it home.

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BEST DIRECTOR
Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
Bennett Miller, Capote
Paul Haggis, Crash
George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck
Steven Spielberg, Munich

MY PREFERENCE: Paul Haggis, Crash
PREDICTED WINNER: Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
WHY: It is unsual for a film to win Best Picture and not win the Best Director prize, but it has happened before and I think it will happen again this year. Crash will win Best Picture but Ang Lee, who has won the directing prize at every major award show so far, will win Best Director.

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BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Paul Haggis & Bobby Moresco, Crash
George Clooney & Grant Heslov, Good Night, and Good Luck
Woody Allen, Match Point
Noah Baumbach, The Squid and the Whale
Stephen Gaghan, Syriana

MY PREFERENCE: Paul Haggis & Bobby Moresco, Crash
PREDICTED WINNER: Paul Haggis & Bobby Moresco, Crash
WHY: Crash should walk away with this award for managing to make a powerful and provocative movie out of more than eight intertwining subplots. Of the other films in the category, Good Night, and Good Luck and Syriana do have a chance to win. Unlikely though. This one's for Crash.

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BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Larry McMurtry & Diana Ossana, Brokeback Mountain
Dan Futterman, Capote
Jeffrey Caine, The Constant Gardener
Josh Olson, A History of Violence
Tony Kushner and Eric Roth, Munich

MY PREFERENCE: Dan Futterman, Capote
PREDICTED WINNER: Larry McMurtry & Diana Ossana, Brokeback Mountain
WHY: Apparently Brokeback was adapted from a short story, which makes it pretty much unstoppable in this category.